Рубрика: Мировая экономика
Финансы, деньги, инвестиции
№2
·
2026
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С. 3-8
Структурная замкнутость и парадокс стабилизатора: трансграничные инвестиции в условиях геополитической конкуренции
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Аннотация
Провал американской политики декаплинга в 2025 г. указал на системное противоречие в логике разрыва цепочек поставок. Цель статьи заключается в определении структурных условий, когда декаплинг становится стратегически иррациональным. Предметом исследования являются трансграничные инвестиционные решения в условиях структурной зависимости от доминирующего контрагента. В статье вводится две оригинальные теоретические конструкции. Структурная замкнутость поставок формализует граничное условие, когда стандартные предписания о диверсификации утрачивают применимость: в отличие от обычной зависимости, при которой выход возможен, но дорог. Парадокс стабилизатора описывает ситуацию, где доминирующий актор одновременно является главным источником системного риска и единственным его стабилизатором. На основе этих конструкций предложена матрица принятия решений.
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